April 5, 2013: New York: I had the pleasure of speaking on the Macro-Economy panel today at the Annual China Business Conference, jointly sponsored by the Columbia Business School and the Greater China Society. The conference is one of the largest on the East Coast and serves to elevate understanding of China’s rapidly growing–and just as rapidly evolving economy. Participants discussed opportunities and and challenges in doing business in and with China.
The theme of the conference centered around doubling the GDP of China and the average income of its citizens between 2010 and 2020, a goal put forth by the 18th Communist Party Congress. Our panel discussed issues around re-balancing China’s economy and evolving from state owned enterprises to a system centered around consumption and private enterprise.
To Rick and the China students at Columbia University,
Thank you for your kind note, and I am pleased that my remarks were well received. I am optimistic about China’s growth, even at 6% to 7%. The whole world needs Chinese economic growth, because there is no where else to turn. I do not see growth from the U.S. for at least five years, because of poor demographics (not enough people, and working people at that), poor politics, and too many investment disincentives.
I am happy that the shadow banking market (est. 40% of Chinese capital) is growing and financing private sectors SMEs. This is good to sustain Chinese export and grow domestic consumption. I hope the Chinese government keeps it hands off of this “unregulated” capital pool, so China’s private sector can grow, and rich families can continue to send their sons and daughters Columbia as an investment in human capital that will return to China with strong management and entrepreneurial skills.
Milton